What Is An If Bet Reverse
Reverse line movement (RLM) is something that is brought up a lot around the gambling industry. For those of you who are confused on what a RLM is, here’s an in-depth explanation. Understanding Betting Line Movements in General. In order to spot a reverse line movement, you have to have an understanding of how a line should move based on action. An if bet is a series of wagers where the action continues to the next bet only if a condition is met. These can be if win bets or if win/push. A similar wagering option called reverse bets function as if win, push, no action or cancel.
Sports Betting Tips: Understanding Reverse Bets
by Trevor Whenham - 11/18/2010
Reverse bets are a type of bet you can make at most sportsbooks, but they aren’t a particularly popular bet, and they don’t even show up on the radar of most bettors. A large part of the reason for that is that the bets can be confusing if you don’t understand them. Once you figure out what they are, though, they actually make a lot of sense.
A reverse bet is essentially just two ‘if’ bets, so it makes sense that we start with looking at what an ‘if’ bet is. An ‘if’ bet is a bet on two or more teams - like a parlay is. The difference between a parlay and an ‘if’ bet, though, is that you have to win all of your games in a parlay or you lose your entire bet, while in an ‘if’ bet you can get some money back if you win just once.
It’s easier to understand an ‘if’ bet if you think of it as an ‘if/then’ bet. If you bet a three-game ‘if’ bet and the first game wins, then the bet you planned to make on the second game is active. If the first bet doesn’t win then your bet on the second and third games don’t happen. If the second game wins then your bet on the third game is active. If the bet on the second game loses then your bet is finished, but you get to keep the proceeds from the first winning bet.
There are a few reasons why you would make an ‘if’ bet, but one of the most common is because of an inadequate bankroll. If you want to bet on two games and you only have $100 to bet on each, then you could bet $50 on each game, or you could give yourself a shot at a better ultimate profit by placing a $100 if bet.
A reverse bet is just two two-game if bets that are dependent on each other. People who are familiar with betting on horse races will understand that a reverse bet is essentially just a box of an ‘if’ bet. For example, lets say that you like Team A in one game and Team B in the other. If you just bet an ‘if’ bet on A and then B you would be out of luck if A lost - even if B subsequently won.
A forecast bet is commonly used in horse and greyhound racing. A reverse forecast bet varies from a straight forecast which needs the named selections to finish in an exact order. Check for the latest Bet365 Bonus Codes when opening an account. An action reverse bet places two separate if bets simultaneously, one in each direction. An action reverse bet also risks twice as much as an if bet, because it is effectively two separate bets. If an action reverse bet was placed on the Jets and Kings, it would cost $20, instead of $10, because two individual $10 bets are being placed. A reverse forecast is an easier bet to place than a straight forecast bet, as you just have to pick the top two finishers of a particular race or sporting event; you do not have to get the order right as long as both of your two choices finish in the top two, which definitely makes predicting the outcome easier if you are confident about who.
In a reverse bet you would make two if bets - A then B, but also B then A. Depending on the odds for the two teams you are interested in, your losses could be less in the reverse bet than if you had just bet the one ‘if’ bet. If Team B was a big underdog you could even make a profit even if only one team won. You can make reverse bets that combine a moneyline bet with a point spread, or even games in two different sports.
The concept may still be a little muddy, but an example will make it easier to grasp. Let’s say that the two teams you like are the Giants -110, and the Steelers -120, and you make a $500 reverse bet. The potential loss in a reverse bet is twice the potential loss in the potentially more expensive game. In this case you are betting to win $500 on each game, so on the Giants you would bet $550, while on the Steelers you would bet $600. Your maximum loss, then, is $1200 (the maximum loss would occur when the more expensive game loses and the less expensive game is a push). Ignoring the possibility of pushes, there are four different possible outcomes - the Giants and Steelers can both win, the Giants can win and the Steelers can lose, the Steelers can win while the Giants can lose, or both teams can win. Let’s look at each:
Both teams win: In this case you would win both of your if bets. In the first you would bet $550 on the Giants and win, generating a profit of $500. Then you would bet $600 on the Steelers, generating a profit of $500. You would generate a profit of $1000 on that ‘if’ bet. You would also bet $1000 on the other ‘if’ bet. Your total profit, then, would be $2000.
Giants win, Steelers lose: In your first ‘if’ bets - the Giants then the Steelers - you would win your first bet for a profit of $500, but then you would lose the second bet for a loss of $600. Your net result on that ‘if’ bet would be a loss of $100. On the other if bet you would lose $600 on the Steelers bet, and the ‘if’ bet would end. Your total loss would be $650.
Steelers win, Giants lose: You would lose your first ‘if’ bet - the Giants then the Steelers - and you would lose $550. On your second if bet you would win the first part for a profit of $500, but then you’d lose the second part and lose $550. Your net loss is $50. Overall your loss would be $550.
Both teams lose: You would lose $550 on the first if bet, and $600 on the second if bet, for a total loss of $1150.
So, why would you bet a reverse bet instead of a parlay? If you risk $1200 in a parlay with these two teams then you would make a profit of $3000 when you won, but you would lose your whole bet in the other three possible outcomes. Those three losses would cost you $3600.
So over the long term the expectation of the bet would be a loss of 12.5 percent of the amount you bet. In a reverse bet you would only win $2000 when you win, but your losses would only be $2350 on your three lost bets. You’d still lose money over the long term, but your long-term loss expectation would be just 7.6 percent. It’s easier to overcome a smaller expected loss with handicapping than a bigger one, so reverse bets could be more attractive in this situation.
Most Recent Sports Betting 101
What does reverse line movement mean, and is it a profitable strategy to wager on games? This is a popular question that we get from inexperienced bettors. This article will try to break down the basics of what it is, and if it’s a tool that can help you add profits to your bankroll.
Reverse line movement (RLM) is something that is brought up a lot around the gambling industry. For those of you who are confused on what a RLM is, here’s an in-depth explanation.
Understanding Betting Line Movements in General
In order to spot a reverse line movement, you have to have an understanding of how a line should move based on action. It’s well known that Vegas and the online sportsbooks want to have as close to even money being wagered on both sides of any action as possible.
They do their best to set an opening line that they feel will attract bettors to both sides. If they are getting uneven action on a game, they will move the line to try an get more bets (money) on the other side.
Let’s say a team opens as a 6-point favorite. If 60% of the bets are coming in on that team to cover, the books are vulnerable. The juice wouldn’t cover the loss if the favorite covered. That’s why they are quick to move the line. In this case, you would expect the line to go up to -6.5 or -7.
Why do they do this? Because they have a built-in profit margin called the vig. If both sides of a spread or total is -110, that 10 cents of juice charged to the loser is how the book makes money. If they have even action on both sides of a game, there is no liability. That is to say that the books are taking no risks and have no chance of losing.
If the books are unbalanced, then there is a risk of taking a loss. Since Vegas casinos are now run by corporations, and corporations generally frown on losing money, the days of sportsbook managers taking a stance on games are long gone.
Now, the number of bets and money coming in is important, but the books will also pay attention to who is making those wagers. There are professional gamblers that can beat the line day in and day out. If one of these guys comes in and places a max bet, you can be guaranteed to see the line move. If a whale comes in and does the same, the book might be confident enough in its line to leave it be.
What Is A If Bet
The best sportsbooks in the world aren’t afraid of sharp action. Instead, they use it to sharpen up their lines. Weaker books limit or ban winning players, they only want recreational fish who donate time after time and don’t try to actually win.
Where to go to Find Reverse Line Moves
You might be asking yourself, how do you know which side is receiving the majority of the bets? There are several sites out there that will show you the percentage of bets being wagered on each side. One of my favorites place to check for this is the odds page at SportsCapping.
The key thing you have to realize is the percentage is the number of bets not the amount of money. The books do not disclose how much money is being wagered on one side or another. You also have to use some common sense. The public likes to bet on things to happen. They like taking overs because rooting for points to not be scored isn’t as fun. They like taking favorites because it’s tough for them to back a team they don’t feel are as good as their opponents. You need to have this in the back of your mind as you try to determine what line moves are going in the opposite direction of the public’s action.
Action Reverse Bet
Spotting Reverse Line Movement
It’s really easy once you get it figured out. Just because a team is receiving 60% of the action, doesn’t mean they are getting the majority of the money.
Let’s say there are 100 wagers that have been placed on a game. There’s 60 on one side (60%) and 40 on the other. If the average bet of the 60 is only $50, the total money bet would be $3,000. If the average bet of the 40 is $200, the total bet would be $8,000.
Even though one side is receiving 60% of the action, it’s possible the books are getting way more money on the other side. The spread on the team that is getting 60% is going to get better. If they were -4, the books are going to drop that down to -3.5 or even -3 to try and get more money flowing in on the favorite.
All you have to do is study the lines and betting percentages. If a team is getting 60% or more of the action and the line moves the other direction, this is what is known as a reverse line move.
You also have to remember that the majority of money staked on a game is going to come from the public. The sharps do not have opinions on every game. Determining whether a move is based on sharp action, public action, or new information is very difficult even for the veteran bettor. It takes a little bit of feel to do so correctly.
One thing to look at is the size of the market. A line move in the NFL typically means that new information has been brought to light (such as a significant injury) or a really massive amount of money has been thrown around. To move the line in a small conference college basketball game might mean just a few thousand dollars were thrown down by a gambler that the book respects.
Are Reverse Line Movements Profitable?
I’m guessing a lot of you right now are asking yourself if it’s profitable to follow. The answer is yes, but you have to trust it long-term.
The important thing to note is those reverse line movements are almost a result of sharp bettors. The public loves action and likes to bet on a lot of games. Their average bet size isn’t typically that much. Sharps, on the other hand, bet massive amounts on a select few games.
Almost every time you play an RLM, you are betting alongside the sharps. These are people who do this for a living and spend countless hours breaking down games.
Reverse Sweetheart Football
I do want to point out that you do have to some research of your own. Not all line movement is a result of money being bet. You have to make sure that oddsmakers aren’t moving the line because of an injury or suspension. Sometimes they also notice the sharps do not have an opinion on the game but the public is heavily favoring one side or another. The books will want to adjust the odds, in this case, to try and encourage the sharps to come in and balance their action.